Why Is This American Government Shutdown Different (as well as Harder to Resolve)?
Government closures are a repeat element in American political life – however this one feels especially difficult to resolve due to political dynamics along with bad blood between the two parties.
Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, and about 750,000 people likely to be placed on unpaid leave as Republicans and Democrats remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.
Legislative attempts to resolve the impasse have repeatedly failed, with little visibility on an off-ramp in this instance as each side – as well as the President – perceive advantages in digging in.
These are the four ways in which this shutdown distinct currently.
First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – beyond healthcare issues
Democratic supporters have insisted over recent periods for their representatives more forcefully fights the current presidency. Currently Democratic leaders has a chance to demonstrate they have listened.
In March, Senate leader faced strong criticism after supporting a Republican spending bill and averting a government closure in the spring. This time he's holding firm.
This is a chance for the Democratic party to demonstrate their ability to reclaim certain authority from a presidency that has moved aggressively with determined action.
Opposing the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers as citizens generally will grow frustrated with prolonged negotiations and consequences begin to mount.
Democratic representatives are using the shutdown fight to put a spotlight on ending healthcare financial support together with Republican-approved government healthcare cuts for the poor, which are both unpopular.
They are also trying to restrict the President's use of presidential authority to rescind or withhold money approved by Congress, a practice demonstrated with foreign aid and other programmes.
2. For Republicans, they see potential
The administration leader along with a senior aide have made little secret their perspective that they smell a chance to make more of reductions in government employment implemented during the current presidential term to date.
The President himself said last week that the shutdown provided him with a "unique chance", adding he intended to reduce funding for "Democrat agencies".
The White House said it would be left with a "challenging responsibility" involving significant workforce reductions to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. An administration spokesperson described this as "budgetary responsibility".
The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, but the White House have been consulting with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, under the leadership of the key official.
The budget director has already announced the halting of government financial support for Democratic-run parts of the country, including New York City and Illinois' largest city.
Third, Trust Is Lacking on either side
While previous shutdowns typically involved extended negotiations between the two parties in an effort to get government services running again, currently there seems minimal cooperative willingness of collaboration this time.
Conversely, there is rancour. Political tensions continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other regarding the deadlock's origin.
House Speaker a Republican, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment toward resolution, and maintaining positions over a deal "to get political cover".
Meanwhile, the opposition's chief levelled the same accusation against their counterparts, saying that a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies once the government reopens can not be taken seriously.
The administration leader personally has escalated tensions by posting a controversial AI-generated image of the Senate leader along with another senior in the House, in which the legislator appears wearing traditional headwear and a moustache.
The affected legislator with party colleagues denounced this as discriminatory, which was denied by the administration's second-in-command.
4. The US economy faces vulnerability
Analysts expect about 40% of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to be put on unpaid leave as a result of the government closure.
That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, including halted environmental approvals, patent approvals, payments to contractors and other kinds of government activity tied to business comes to a halt.
The closure additionally introduces new uncertainty into an economy currently experiencing disruption from multiple factors including trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, immigration raids and technological advancements.
Analysts estimate potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth weekly during the closure.
But the economy typically recoups most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.
That could be one reason why financial markets have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.
Conversely, analysts say that if the President carries out proposed significant workforce reductions, the damage could be more long-lasting.